The 2025 NBA Finals are tied 2-2 between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. Game 5 shifts back to Oklahoma City, where the Thunder have been dominant, posting a 9-2 home record in the playoffs. The Pacers, however, have proven resilient on the road, going 7-3 away from home in the postseason.
What’s your prediction?
Thunder vs Pacers Betting Odds and Lines
Spread: Thunder -9.5
Moneyline: Thunder (-395 to -437), Pacers (+310 to +335)
“We’ve been as close as you can be as a basketball team, guys are connected at the hip everywhere we go,” according to ESPN.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: “Every team is good. There’s rarely going to be a blowout. It comes down to the moments and who is willing to make winning plays on both ends of the floor,” according to Yahoo Sports.
The Thunder are consensus favorites for Game 5, with most sportsbooks and analysts predicting a straight-up win for Oklahoma City.
SportsLine’s advanced projection model, after 10,000 simulations, leans toward the Thunder winning and the game going under the total (projecting 221 combined points)
Fox Sports projects a Thunder win and cover, predicting a 122-108 final score.
Covers and other outlets echo the Thunder as the likely winner but note the Pacers’ ability to keep games close, suggesting OKC may not cover the sizable spread.
Against the Spread (ATS) and Trends
Both teams are 2-2 ATS in the series.
Thunder are 7-1 straight up in their last eight home games.
Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-5 ATS in their last 15 overall.
Indiana is 49-25 ATS after a home loss under coach Rick Carlisle and 26-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points.
Sharp and Contrarian Takes
Some analysts and bettors believe the Pacers have shown a clearer identity and have outplayed the Thunder in stretches, especially in Games 3 and 4.
The Pacers’ depth and pace have worn down OKC at times, and their recent road performance makes them an intriguing pick to cover the spread or even win outright as a long shot.
Summary Table: Game 5 Pacers vs Thunder Prediction Comparison
Most Likely Outcome: Thunder win Game 5 at home, leveraging their strong home-court advantage and MVP-level play from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Spread: The 9.5-point spread is sizable; while many expect a Thunder win, several analysts believe the Pacers are capable of keeping it close and covering. The Pacers, who led the Thunder during most of Game 4, match up well with OKC. So, if you’re considering the Thunder’s likelihood of beating the 9.5 spread, the most likely scenario is OKC running up the score via foul shooting in the final 60 to 90 seconds of the game.
Best Bets: Thunder moneyline is the safest pick, but Pacers +9.5 offers value for those expecting a close contest. Player props for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 33.5 points are also strongly supported.
Intangibles: The Pacers played well in Game 4 but couldn’t break away. They briefly led by 10, but their lead was just 3 to 7 points for most of the contest as the Thunder stayed in striking position throughout. It would be ideal for the Pacers to produce a large scoring run and get ahead by at least 17 in the second half instead of playing tit for tat with OKC while holding a slim lead. Of course, that’s easier said than done. But it’ll be to Indiana’s advantage to create – and hold – a double-digit lead to force the Thunder off their game.
OKC is more talented, but the Pacers had outhustled and outsmarted their opponents throughout the playoffs. To beat the Thunder at home, they’ll have to do those things and stay on par with OKC at the free-throw line.
Team
Free Throws Made
Free Throws Attempted
Free Throw %
Thunder (OKC)
34
38
89.5%
Pacers (IND)
25
33
75.8%
Oklahoma City’s ability to draw fouls and convert at the line was especially critical in the fourth quarter, where Shai Gilgeous-Alexander repeatedly attacked the basket and capitalized on his free-throw opportunities.
The Pacers, by contrast, missed key free throws down the stretch—most notably Bennedict Mathurin, who missed three crucial attempts in the closing moments. If Indiana had connected on a few missed late free throws, they would have had a decent chance to win.
Following OKC’s road win over the Pacers on Friday night, NBA legend Charles Barkley said the Thunder now have a huge advantage and called the series “a wrap” after the game.
“Yeah, I think they are in trouble,” Barkley said of the Pacers during postgame coverage. “Because when you have a team on the ropes, you have to finish them off. You go up 3-1, you are in great shape. But now, you go back. … Number one, you know Oklahoma City has a better team. Now, they are back to their original starting lineup, which will be better next game.”
“Then they realize, ‘Man, we have got to play our bench more. We’re back to the thing that got us to the NBA Finals. We’re back to big-big. We’re gonna dominate them on the boards.’ They are going back to Oklahoma City. I think this series is a wrap. I thought [Friday] was a big deal for both teams.”
Final Thunder vs Pacers Game 5 Prediction: Thunder win Game 5, but the Pacers are likely to keep it within single digits, making Pacers +9.5 an attractive play.
